Casual players look to steer past traffic slowdown

Perhaps more than any other restaurant segment, casual dining is at a turning point, its leading brands forced to make major changes because of the troubled economy and the sector’s own track record of aggressive growth.

The largest casual players are dramatically curtailing new-unit development in order to establish a restaurant supply that can match consumers’ waning demand. The segment’s biggest chains are tweaking, or in some cases overhauling, their menus and pricing. Multiconcept outfits are disposing of entire chains or divesting locations that have underperformed.

Meanwhile, recent management shake-ups at the highest levels portend an altered casual-dining landscape for years to come.

This year “could be the biggest year in the casual-dining industry’s multiyear transition to maturity,” David Palmer, a restaurant securities analyst at UBS Equity Research in New York, says in a June report. “The best-in-class chains will move toward lower unit growth and more effective brand…management.”

Already, such chains as California Pizza Kitchen and Chili’s Grill & Bar have reduced projected unit openings, especially in domestic markets while looking overseas for more chain expansion. Others, like Outback Steakhouse, O’Charley’s and Ruby Tuesday, have worked to improve their image among customers by redesigning facilities, changing menus, and launching new advertising and promotions.

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY U.S. SYSTEMWIDE SALES*Actual results, estimates or projectionsSource: NRN research
LATEST-YEAR RANKPREC.-YEAR RANKCHAINFISCAL YEAR-ENDU.S. SYSTEMWIDE FOODSERVICE SALES*(BY FISCAL YEAR, IN MILLIONS)
    LATESTPRECEDINGPRIOR
11Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & BarDec. ’07$4,505.4$4,542.9$4,192.2
22Chili’s Grill & BarJune ’083,880.03,532.03,270.0
33Olive GardenMay ’083,048.02,772.02,610.8
44Outback SteakhouseDec. ’072,637.02,619.02,599.0
55Red LobsterMay ’082,567.02,527.02,502.2
66T.G.I. Friday’sDec. ’072,028.91,940.71,907.5
77Ruby TuesdayMay ’081,704.21,805.31,689.7
88The Cheesecake FactoryDec. ’071,327.41,158.11,051.0
99Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & SpiritsDec. ’071,102.3967.7798.9
1010Texas RoadhouseDec. ’071,020.0930.1807.3
1112Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar Dec. ’071,017.3869.0656.5
1211HootersDec. ’07953.0879.0866.0
1314P.F. Chang’s China BistroDec. ’07853.3757.5675.2
1413LongHorn SteakhouseDec. ’07831.2774.0666.1
1517Carrabba’s Italian GrillDec. ’07705.0649.0580.0
1615Romano’s Macaroni GrillJune ’08690.0740.0771.0
1716Bennigan’s Irish Amer. Grill & TavernDec. ’07643.0656.1655.8
1819California Pizza KitchenDec. ’07642.0565.0497.0
1918O’Charley’sDec. ’07630.0642.0620.0
2020Logan’s RoadhouseJuly ’07557.8501.0450.0
2121Ruth’s Chris Steak HouseDec. ’07498.0461.0385.5
2222Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria Uno Sept. ’07448.6442.6430.1
  TOTALS: $32,289.4$30,731.0$28,681.8

Leading some of the largest chains through such maturation phases are some new faces in the corner office. Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & Bar, the largest casual-dining chain in terms of system sales and number of units, not only has a new corporate parent in DineEquity Inc.—the new name adopted by IHOP Corp. in May—but also has a new chain president.

Michael J. Archer was snatched away from T.G.I. Friday’s, another casual-dining chain in the Top 100, to assume the presidency at Applebee’s. Archer, who began his new role late last month, had been president and chief operating officer of Friday’s domestic division. As of late June, Friday’s hadn’t yet named a replacement for Archer. Applebee’s former president and chief executive, Dave Goebel, was ousted earlier this year along with other executives in senior management after IHOP purchased the struggling Applebee’s for $1.9 billion last November.

Archer’s assignment is to drive turnaround efforts by the Lenexa, Kan.-based chain, which DineEquity has said include a paring down of the Applebee’s menu, a renewed focus on bar operations—previously one of a few bright spots in terms of the chain’s sales—and an overhaul of marketing efforts to emphasize the brand’s points of differentiation.

Applebee’s, like many in its segment, has struggled for years with decreased guest traffic critics say resulted from inattention to its menu and branding.

Casual dining also has taken a large hit from the weakened consumer, who for almost a full year now has struggled with increased costs for gas, groceries and utilities and the dwindling value of investments, especially home equity. With casual dining’s price points ranging from as low as $10 to as high as $25, many consumers have opted to trade down to fast-casual or quick-service alternatives.

In that environment, Julia Stewart, DineEquity’s chairman and chief executive, has worked to tweak Applebee’s advertising, menu and promotions since the acquisition. Like many in the casual-dining sector that are attempting to lure customers with value-oriented deals, Applebee’s currently is promoting its Three Course Classics, a meal that includes an appetizer, entrée and dessert, typically priced at $9.99. Stewart, who was Applebee’s U.S. president before joining IHOP, expresses confidence in Applebee’s future.

“We’ve been down this road before and successfully led a total business transformation and re-energized a well-known brand,” she has said, referring to the turnaround she led at the IHOP chain, DineEquity’s other holding. “We plan to do it again with Applebee’s.”

For the chain’s latest quarter ended March 31, Applebee’s posted a 0.5-percent increase in same-store sales, which was its first uptick in that key area since 2006.

On the corporate side, Applebee’s also is being restructured into a more franchise-heavy company and most recently completed the first of many planned refranchising deals to reduce DineEquity’s ownership of the chain’s restaurants.

Another casual-dining giant looking toward new leadership is The Cheesecake Factory. At press time, the chain, long admired for having the highest average per-restaurant sales volume of any brand in the segment, was without a brand president following the departure of Russ Bendel, who left the company last month after just nine months as head of its restaurant division. Bendel exited to take the reins at Santa Barbara, Calif.-based The Habit Burger Grill, a chain poised for multistate growth with funding from the same investment firm that had backed the Mimi’s Cafe chain, which Bendel headed before he joined The Cheesecake Factory last summer.

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY GROWTH IN U.S. SYSTEMWIDE SALES (Year-to-year percentage change)*Actual results, estimates or projectionsSource: NRN research
LATEST-YEAR RANKPREC.-EAR RANKCHAINFISCAL YEAR- ENDLATEST* VS. PRECEDINGPRECEDING* VS. PRIOR
11Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & BarDec. ’0717.0732.37
210The Cheesecake FactoryDec. ’0714.6210.19
32Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & SpiritsDec. ’0713.9121.13
46California Pizza KitchenDec. ’0713.6313.68
57P.F. Chang’s China BistroDec. ’0712.6512.19
69Logan’s RoadhouseJuly ’0711.3411.33
714Olive GardenMay ’089.966.17
812Chili’s Grill & BarJune ’089.858.01
95Texas RoadhouseDec. ’079.6715.21
108Carrabba’s Italian GrillDec. ’078.6311.9
1118HootersDec. ’078.421.5
123Ruth’s Chris Steak HouseDec. ’078.0319.58
134LongHorn SteakhouseDec. ’077.3916.2
1417T.G.I. Friday’sDec. ’074.541.74
1519Red LobsterMay ’081.580.99
1616Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria UnoSept. ’071.362.91
1720Outback SteakhouseDec. ’070.690.77
1811Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & BarDec. ’07-0.838.37
1915O’Charley’sDec. ’07-1.873.55
2021Bennigan’s Irish American Grill & TavernDec. ’07-2.000.05
2113Ruby TuesdayMay ’08-5.606.84
2222Romano’s Macaroni GrillJune ’08-6.76-4.02
  AVERAGE: 6.199.12

The Cheesecake Factory this month assigned day-to-day operations responsibility to David Gordon, its former West Coast regional operations vice president, promoting him to senior vice president of operations. The reassignment of Gordon—who is unrelated to the chain’s longtime brand development and marketing chief, Howard Gordon—was one of several executive changes the company undertook after Bendel’s exit.

Though not suffering as much as segment peers like Applebee’s, The Cheesecake Factory is in the midst of its own transition and recently had to deal with possible cannibalization from newer units and from branches of sister chain Grand Lux Cafe. The Cheesecake Factory chain’s annual average-unit volume has decreased steadily for about two years. Once considered resistant to changing consumer spending levels, the chain has started to feel the pressure of a lowered guest count.

While casual dining has been hit hard by weakened consumer spending, it also has had to contend with increases in almost all operating costs—labor, occupancy, commodities and distribution. Some of those expenses have been passed on to diners, though such menu price increases represent a fine line that many operators approach with the utmost caution.

The Cheesecake Factory currently is undertaking a detailed pricing study, its officials have noted, in order to understand how much pricing power it holds in terms of the chain’s ability to retain customer loyalty. Prices at the restaurants already were raised 1.5 percent this past winter.

“It continues to be a difficult environment to pass along cost pressures via menu price increases,” chief financial officer Michael Dixon told investors in a recent conference call. The Cheesecake Factory “will evaluate our opportunities for menu price increase again in our upcoming summer menu change,” he said.

For the company’s quarter ended April 1, blended same-store sales from The Cheesecake Factory and Grand Lux Cafe fell 1.8 percent from a year earlier.

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY NUMBER OF U.S. UNITS*Actual results, estimates or projectionsSource: NRN research
LATEST-YEAR RANKPREC.-YEAR RANKCHAINFISCAL YEAR- ENDYEAR-END NUMBER OF UNITS*
    LATESTPRECEDINGPRIOR
11Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & BarDec. ’071,8641,8411,732
22Chili’s Grill & BarJune ’081,3051,2201,085
33Ruby TuesdayMay ’08904883836
44Outback SteakhouseDec. ’07795786775
55Red LobsterMay ’08651651651
66Olive GardenMay ’08647608576
77T.G.I. Friday’sDec. ’07595577550
88Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & BarDec. ’07493429370
99HootersDec. ’07392385376
1010Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & SpiritsDec. ’07366329281
1111LongHorn SteakhouseDec. ’07305270237
1213Texas RoadhouseDec. ’07285251221
1312Bennigan’s Irish Amer. Grill & TavernDec. ’07255265270
1414O’Charley’sDec. ’07240237231
1516Carrabba’s Italian GrillDec. ’07238229200
1618California Pizza KitchenDec. ’07209192175
1715Romano’s Macaroni GrillJune ’08201230232
1717Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria UnoSept. ’07201202203
1919Logan’s RoadhouseJuly ’07182166147
2020P.F. Chang’s China BistroDec. ’07173153131
2121The Cheesecake FactoryDec. ’07140123103
2222Ruth’s Chris Steak HouseDec. ’071069082
  TOTALS: 10,54710,1179,464

Among other chains affected by leadership changes are Ruth’s Chris Steak House, whose former chairman and chief executive Craig Miller was ousted by the board this spring, and Bennigan’s Irish American Grill & Tavern, which former CEO Clay Dover left abruptly at about the same time, citing a difference in opinion over the course charted for the chain’s parent company, Metromedia Restaurant Group. At both companies, successors had yet to be named this month.

At Orlando, Fla.-based Darden Restaurants Inc., management is overseeing an expanded portfolio that includes flagship brands Red Lobster and Olive Garden and the newly acquired LongHorn Steakhouse, also a Top 100 chain. Darden’s large corporate merger with the former Rare Hospitality International Inc. hasn’t affected the chains’ performances, and Red Lobster and Olive Garden remain perhaps the best-performing chains in casual dining, having posted segment-leading increases in same-store sales month after month as their leaders re-evaluate brand positioning constantly.

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY GROWTH IN NUMBER OF U.S. UNITS (Year-to-year percentage change)*Actual results, estimates or projectionsSource: NRN research
LATEST-YEAR RANKPREC.-EAR RANKCHAINFISCAL YEAR- ENDLATEST* VS. PRECEDINGPRECEDING* VS. PRIOR
110Ruth’s Chris Steak HouseDec. ’0717.789.76
24Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & BarDec. ’0714.9215.95
31The Cheesecake FactoryDec. ’0713.8219.42
47Texas RoadhouseDec. ’0713.5513.57
53P.F. Chang’s China BistroDec. ’0713.0716.79
66LongHorn SteakhouseDec. ’0712.9613.92
72Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & SpiritsDec. ’0711.2517.08
88Logan’s RoadhouseJuly ’079.6412.93
911California Pizza KitchenDec. ’078.859.71
109Chili’s Grill & BarJune ’086.9712.44
1114Olive GardenMay ’086.415.56
125Carrabba’s Italian GrillDec. ’073.9314.5
1315T.G.I. Friday’sDec. ’073.124.91
1413Ruby TuesdayMay ’082.385.62
1517HootersDec. ’071.822.39
1616O’Charley’sDec. ’071.272.6
1712Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & BarDec. ’071.256.29
1818Outback SteakhouseDec. ’071.151.42
1919Red LobsterMay ’080.000.00
2020Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria UnoSept. ’07-0.50-0.49
2122Bennigan’s Irish American Grill & Tavern Dec. ’07-3.77-1.85
2221Romano’s Macaroni GrillJune ’08-12.61-0.86
  AVERAGE: 5.788.26

Red Lobster, for instance, embarked on a rebranding campaign that started years ago and is set to finish with a return to new-unit openings next year after three years of stalled development. During that time Red Lobster worked to strengthen unit fundamentals, refresh the brand and build guest counts. Currently the chain is testing a new menu in certain stores, which chain officials have said will be advertised with more of a focus on food rather than price points. A new unit design also is in test within certain markets. The company would not provide further details.

Darden, however, is not immune to the current economic pressures. Its LongHorn chain and the growth brands Bahama Breeze and The Capital Grille still are struggling with negative same-store sales trends, and the company as a whole has been faced with the increased costs besetting all operators. However, as the largest casual-dining operator since its purchase of Rare, Darden holds more purchasing leverage than most rivals. The company’s size grew so drastically after the Rare merger that Darden overtook McDonald’s as the Top 100’s largest company, in terms of domestic foodservice revenue.

Other large competitors, like Brinker International Inc., parent of Chili’s, Romano’s Macaroni Grill and others, as well as OSI Restaurant Partners LLC, parent of Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill and others, also are using the soft economic environment to re-evaluate operations.

“There are times such as these we believe it is valuable to examine our business from a variety of perspectives and look for improvement opportunities,” Brinker chairman and chief executive Doug Brooks told investors during a recent conference call. “People tend to get more motivated when times are tough.”

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY ESTIMATED SALES PER UNIT*Estimated average, based on mathematical equation of annual systemwide sales growth and change in number of operating units.Source: NRN research
LATEST-YEAR RANKPREC.-YEAR RANKCHAINFISCAL YEAR- ENDSALES PER UNIT* (BY FISCAL YEAR, IN THOUSANDS)
    LATESTPRECEDINGPRIOR
11The Cheesecake FactoryDec. ’07$10,094.3$10,248.7$11,063.2
23P.F. Chang’s China BistroDec. ’075,235.05,334.55,489.4
32Ruth’s Chris Steak HouseDec. ’075,081.65,360.54,849.1
44Olive GardenMay ’084,857.44,682.44,608.6
56Red LobsterMay ’083,943.23,881.73,852.5
65Texas RoadhouseDec. ’073,806.03,941.13,900.0
77T.G.I. Friday’sDec. ’073,462.33,444.03,529.1
88Outback SteakhouseDec. ’073,335.93,355.53,395.2
910Logan’s RoadhouseJuly ’073,205.73,201.33,284.7
1012California Pizza KitchenDec. ’073,202.03,079.02,949.6
119Romano’s Macaroni GrillJune ’083,201.93,203.53,374.2
1211Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & SpiritsDec. ’073,172.13,172.83,084.6
1313Chili’s Grill & BarJune ’083,073.33,064.63,162.5
1415Carrabba’s Italian GrillDec. ’073,019.33,025.63,152.2
1514LongHorn SteakhouseDec. ’072,891.13,053.32,980.3
1616O’Charley’sDec. ’072,641.52,743.62,731.3
1718Bennigan’s Irish Amer. Grill & TavernDec. ’072,473.12,452.72,380.4
1819HootersDec. ’072,453.02,310.12,379.1
1917Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & BarDec. ’072,432.12,542.92,506.5
2020Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria UnoSept. ’072,226.32,185.72,103.2
2121Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & BarDec. ’072,206.72,175.21,942.3
2222Ruby TuesdayMay ’081907.32100.42105.5
  AVERAGE: $3,541.9$3,570.9$3,582.9
CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY TOP 100 MARKET SHARE (Percentage of aggregate sales of dinnerhouse chains in Top 100)*Actual results, estimates or projectionsSource: NRN research
LATEST-YEAR RANKPREC.-YEAR RANKCHAINFISCAL YEAR- ENDANNUAL MARKET SHARE*
    LATESTPRECEDINGPRIOR
11Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & BarDec. ’0713.9514.7814.62
22Chili’s Grill & BarJune ’0812.0211.4911.40
33Olive GardenMay ’089.449.029.10
44Outback SteakhouseDec. ’078.178.529.06
55Red LobsterMay ’087.958.228.72
66T.G.I. Friday’sDec. ’076.286.326.65
77Ruby TuesdayMay ’085.285.875.89
88The Cheesecake FactoryDec. ’074.113.773.66
99Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & SpiritsDec. ’073.413.152.79
1010Texas RoadhouseDec. ’073.163.032.81
1112Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & BarDec. ’073.152.832.29
1211HootersDec. ’072.952.863.02
1314P.F. Chang’s China BistroDec. ’072.642.462.35
1413LongHorn SteakhouseDec. ’072.572.522.32
1517Carrabba’s Italian GrillDec. ’072.182.112.02
1615Romano’s Macaroni GrillJune ’082.142.412.69
1716Bennigan’s Irish Amer. Grill & TavernDec. ’071.992.132.29
1719California Pizza KitchenDec. ’071.991.841.73
1918O’Charley’sDec. ’071.952.092.16
2020Logan’s RoadhouseJuly ’071.731.631.57
2121Ruth’s Chris Steak HouseDec. ’071.541.501.34
2222Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria UnoSept. ’071.391.441.5
  TOTALS: 100.00100.00100.00

Echoing that sentiment, officials at Outback, which marks its 20th anniversary this year, have outlined a massive remodeling program and menu changes, including the steak chain’s first-ever limited-time offerings.

“The overall industry is very challenged in an exceptionally challenging year, and Outback is no exception,” Paul Avery, OSI’s chief operating officer, recently told Nation’s Restaurant News. “It is requiring us to think and work differently.

Top 100: Part one of a two-part report

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