Heads up, fried fish. Your days as king of restaurant seafood may be numbered. The amount of nonfried fish being ordered at restaurants is nipping at your fins, even as the total amount of seafood purchased declines. 


According to the latest data from The NPD Group, increasingly health-conscious consumers are more often forgoing fried fish in favor of fish that is baked, broiled, grilled or raw. 


“It’s definitely the fried — whether [general] fried seafood or fried fish — that’s on the decline,” said Bonnie Riggs, an analyst for the Port Washington, N.Y.-based market research firm. “Nonfried is doing considerably better.”


In the year ended in March, consumers ordered 3.4 billion servings of fish and seafood at restaurants, about 6 percent of all orders industrywide, NPD found.


The majority of those orders were fish, accounting for 37 percent of servings of all seafood, and shrimp, which accounted for 34 percent of all seafood servings. Servings of nonfried fish, which accounted for 23 percent of all seafood servings, increased 1 percent in the year ended in March, while fried fish, which accounted for 14 percent of seafood servings, took a 6-percent dive.


Fried shrimp, which accounted for 13 percent of all seafood servings that year, dipped 3 percent. Broiled, boiled, steamed and grilled shrimp, which accounted for 21 percent of all seafood servings, and all other seafood types, which accounted for 29 percent of servings, both declined 1 percent.


Older and more affluent consumers are driving the increases in nonfried fish. According to the data, those who most frequently order seafood are over the age of 49 and have household incomes above $75,000. Consumption is heaviest in the Northeast and South, regions close to bodies of water with an abundance of fruits from the sea. Riggs credits consumers’ increased consumption to the product’s perceived health benefits and increased promotions from full-service eateries.


Despite the uptick in orders of nonfried fish, seafood overall is not performing well, NPD found. In the year ended in March, total servings of seafood declined 2 percent. Seafood has been weak for the last several years, taking the biggest hit in 2009 when orders of seafood were down 6 percent over the prior year. The steep decline during the heart of the recession is a strong indicator that price is a major barrier for consumers, Riggs noted.


Indeed, seafood is pricier across all segments, according to NPD. For example, between March and April of this year the average check at a casual-dining seafood restaurant was $17.95, nearly $2 more than at casual steak-and-rib places and more than $3 higher than at bar-and-grill spots. 


“We know that price is a barrier for fish and seafood,” Riggs said. “From an operator standpoint, to promote [seafood] at a reasonable price — making sure it looks good, is fresh — will make consumers order it.”



Reeling in consumers


Seafood consumption overall may be on the decline, but there is no shortage of brands that see a whale of an opportunity in consumers’ increasing interest in nonfried fish. NRN recently reported on a few brands hoping to hook more consumers, including Maryville, Tenn.-based Ruby Tuesday, which has plans to open a casual-dining seafood concept in some of its shuttered units; Costa Mesa, Calif.-based King’s Seafood Co., which is expanding its new fast-casual Fish Camp concept in Southern California; and McCormick & Schmick’s Seafood Restaurant, which recently said it is looking to add a lower-priced casual-dining seafood chain to its restaurant roster.


With seafood comparatively pricey and the economy still stalled, though, marketing experts agree that getting consumers to take the bait will be a challenge. 


Although there are a lot of fish in the sea, one problem is most varieties aren’t making it onto restaurant menus, according to industry observers. 


“Value is important to everybody. Part of the issue is that what’s out there is pricey,” said Jeffrey T. Davis, president of Sandelman & Associates, a Los Angeles-based market research and consulting firm. “There’s some opportunity to hit that middle ground.” 


As an alternative to such pricier fish as salmon, halibut and sea bass, Davis suggested operators look into using less-expensive options, like tilapia and pollack.


Dennis Lombardi, executive vice president of foodservice strategies for Columbus, Ohio-based WD Partners, agreed that alternative fishes are an option, but he isn’t confident consumers will make the switch so easily.


“I think it’s going to be a long pull to get the mass market away from the fish they’re familiar with,” he said.


However, Lombardi does see an opportunity for operators to switch up their fish by anchoring a new item to a more familiar one.


“It’s an opportunity to create lower-priced proteins … getting away from salmon, getting into barramundi or tilapia, which seems to be so popular right now. Create the seafood as a protein on top of dishes that people know better.”


Fish story


Consumers want to know more about the seafood they’re eating, from whether it was farm raised or wild caught to whether or not it’s considered sustainable. 


“People understand there is ‘fish’ and there is ‘my kind of fish,’” said Arjun Sen, president and founder of ZenMango, a Dallas-based marketing consulting firm working with restaurants. “In communications in and out of the restaurant, people need to get it about your fish. Operators have to have something to stand on to talk about ‘our fish is fresh.’”


Culinary consultant and restaurateur Aaron Noveshen also emphasized the importance of informing the public about seafood origin and quality. And he practices what he preaches at his four Pacific Catch casual-dining seafood restaurants in California.


“It’s very important [to our customers],” he said. “Our company is continually ensuring we’re serving products that aren’t hurting the environment.”


Veto votes and value


A big problem for seafood-
focused restaurants is overcoming the veto vote from parties with members not interested in eating seafood.


“That’s something that restaurants are going to have to deal with,” Lombardi said. “Add other things to the menu, [like] an excellent steak. That’s one strong tactic for the seafood house.” 


Other chains are focused on value. Promotions already are driving the increase in consumption of nonfried fish, but currently they are coming from only a small group of major seafood-category players, leaving the door open for other brands to promote their unique value offerings.


“Other than Red Lobster … nobody has thus far offered a great-quality value offer on seafood,” Sen said. “There has to be some local, regional place who can offer a great value.”