As Hurricane Irene threatens to unleash powerful winds and rain in a 10-state swath from the North Carolina coast to New England this weekend, analysts are already projecting the storm’s impact on restaurant companies most at risk with a large number of units in the storm’s path.

Through the weekend, the storm is expected to result in canceled airline flights, the shut-down of public transportation systems, and traffic jams as residents evacuate flood-prone coastal and low-lying areas.

Sharon Zackfia of William Blair said in a report Friday that casual-dining chains, such as The Cheesecake Factory and P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, are most likely to see sales dip due to the storm, while fast-casual and quick-service chains, such as Panera Bread and Chipotle Mexican Grill, may benefit, based on previous experience.

Zackfia estimates that The Cheesecake Factory has more than 20 percent of its locations in the affected areas, which will likely negatively alter her third-quarter same-store sales projections for the Calabasas Hills, Calif.-based chain by 2.5 percent to 3 percent.

Cheesecake Factory officials were not available at press time.

P.F. Chang’s, with an estimated 15 percent of its Bistro units and 10 percent of Pei Wei locations in the storm’s path, will likely see more modest effects, Zackfia said.

On the other hand, Zackfia said Panera Bread and Chipotle, both of which have about 20 percent of their respective units in the affected area, will likely benefit, as evacuees have been more likely to grab a quick meal during previous storms.

Irene Cook, Panera vice president of retail operations for the Eastern region, said in an email that coastal units have been doing everything they can to remain open, provided conditions remain safe.

“We are busy trying to arrange for refrigerated trucks where needed, that our fresh dough is being delivered as expected, and that our associates who live closer to our bakery-cafes are on stand-by if called upon,” she said. “As in the case of the many storms that our communities have endured, Panera always tries to do our best to have the hot food, welcoming environment, electrical power and means to connect to the Internet — and with neighbors — available when the community needs us most.”

Starbucks, which Zackfia estimates has about 20 percent of its company-operated domestic units in affected states, isn’t likely to see as much impact because weekends are typically less busy, regardless of weather.

“In sum, we see the potential for Hurricane Irene to modestly dampen our third-quarter sales estimates for both The Cheesecake Factory and P.F. Chang’s, while potentially modestly benefitting sales at Panera Bread and Chipotle,” Zackfia wrote.