Soft sales and slow traffic in August contributed to the fourth consecutive month of sub-par performance in the National Restaurant Association's comprehensive index of foodservice activity.
The NRA’s Restaurant Performance Index, a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry, stood at 99.5 in August, essentially unchanged from the prior three months.
A result below the benchmark 100 signifies contraction in the index of key industry indicators.
The restaurant industry index followed a report earlier in the week indicating consumer confidence in the U.S. economy remains “quite grim.” The private research Conference Board on Tuesday reported its monthly gauge fell to 48.5 in September from a revised 53.2 in August.
That marks the lowest reading since February 2010. The index, with a base reading of 100 from the year 1985, helps analysts compare confidence fluctuations.
Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's consumer research center, said, “September's pullback in confidence was due to less favorable business and labor market conditions, coupled with a more pessimistic short-term outlook.
“With so few expecting conditions to improve in the near term,” she continued, “the pace of economic growth is not likely to pick up in the coming months.”
Hudson Riehle, senior vice president for the NRA’s research and knowledge group, said that “although the sales and traffic indicators remained soft in August, restaurant operators are relatively optimistic that conditions will improve in the months ahead.”
He added that restaurant operators’ outlook for sales growth improved in August and “their plans for capital spending activity held steady.”
The RPI consists of two components. The Current Situation Index measures current trends in same-store sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures. The Expectations Index measures restaurant operators’ six-month outlook for same-store sales, employees, capital expenditures and business conditions.
The Current Situation Index for August stood at 98.9, up slightly from 98.8 in July. The index remained below 100 for the 36th consecutive month.
The Expectations Index was at 100.1 in August, up a tic from 100.0 in July.
The RPI is based on responses to the NRA’s monthly tracking survey. The full report is available at http://www.restaurant.org/pdfs/research/index/201008.pdf.
Contact Ron Ruggless at rruggles@nrn.com.
