Whether the restaurant industry finds itself a victim of any double-dip recession rests mainly on consumer sentiment and spending, according to a Tuesday research note by restaurant securities analyst Larry Miller of RBC Capital Markets.

Those consumer trends, according to RBC’s latest data, are not trending in a positive direction.

“It is possible that we are headed for a double-dip recession,” Miller wrote, “and for better or worse, the tipping point looks to be the U.S. consumer.”

RBC’s August survey of 2,517 consumers showed spending plans dropping a sharp 400 basis points from July, Miller said, and declining 800 basis points year over year. The survey, taken from Aug. 1–11, found one-third of the consumers polled saying they planned to spend less at restaurants over the next 90 days, the highest number since October 2010. Ten percent said they planned to spend more, the lowest sentiment since August 2009.

Among consumers still planning to dine out, they plan to spend less. RBC data shows dollar amounts projected for each daypart are declining, with consumers looking to spend, on average, $18.31 on dinner, down from an average of $19.26 per dinner in May, and $18.56 per dinner in September 2010.

“Getting inside the head of U.S. consumers is as challenging as ever these days,” Miller noted. “It’s clear spending plans at restaurants and consumer confidence are eroding. What’s less clear is: Will restaurant sales fall along with these metrics, as there appears to be a psychological component to the weaker readings.”

The current spending plans “look eerily similar to 2010 just ahead of the U.S. midterm political elections and the subsequent stock market volatility,” Miller said.

Restaurant sales at that time, however, powered through, which shows that consumers’ pull back can be mostly attributed to uncertainty surrounding the economy or political landscape, rather than a fundamental change in consumer habits.