NRA: Foodservice sales to hit record $660B in 2013

Highlights from the forecast

The 2013 Restaurant Industry Forecast included several other highlights:

Hiring growth: In 2013, restaurants will employ 13.1 million, or 10 percent of the U.S. workforce, the NRA found. The organization added that the restaurant industry expanded its employee ranks by 3 percent in 2012, more than double the 1.4-percent increase in overall employment for the year.

The NRA expects restaurants to add 1.3 million new positions in the next 10 years, which would bring total industry employment to approximately 14.4 million people by 2023.

“The industry truly has become a jobs juggernaut," Riehle said.

“Employment growth reflects not only sustained increases in overall sales but also that consumers have and will continue to allocate their spending toward meal solutions away from home,” he noted.

Looming challenges: Several years of strong employment growth are likely to bring labor challenges not seen since before the start of the last recession, namely tougher recruitment and retention, the NRA said. Operators in all segments reported that they expect recruitment and retention to be more challenging in 2013 than in 2012.

The most concerning challenges operators cite vary by industry segment, but they include food cost inflation, the overall economy and the effects of health care reform.

The NRA said food costs would continue to rise in 2013, as they have steadily for the past four years. Labor costs also are likely to increase as restaurants comply with the requirements of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, the organization said.

Sluggish growth in wages and consumer confidence could weigh down restaurants' growth potential, the NRA said, but surveys showing that two out of every five consumers say they are not eating out as much as they would like to suggest that there is real pent-up demand for restaurants. That level of unmet demand is as elevated as it was last year heading into 2012, and significantly higher than five years ago, according to Riehle.

A significant improvement in the unemployment rate could accelerate that demand, he noted.

"In the end, the most important development for the economy at large and the industry specifically would be growth in national employment," Riehle said. "When more individuals are employed, that have higher demand for convenient meal solutions away from home, and they also have higher incomes, which has always correlated to growth in restaurant sales. … As the employment situation improves and consumer anxiety diminishes, we'll expect to see some of that pent-up demand released."

Consumer trends: Restaurants looking to meet increased demand from guests also could satisfy increasingly prevalent needs by leveraging new technologies or making a commitment to source food locally, the NRA found.

Significant percentages of consumers surveyed said they would be open to using tableside ordering and payment systems, mobile payments, or smart-phone or tablet apps for viewing menus, ordering or making reservations. However, fewer than 10 percent of table-service restaurants currently use such technology, though a majority of those establishments said they would invest in those platforms in 2013, the NRA said.

Large majorities of consumers also say they increasingly are considering where restaurants procure their ingredients and food when deciding where to dine out and say they are trying to eat more healthfully at restaurants.

The NRA provides its annual forecast free of charge to members. More information can be found at www.restaurant.org/forecast.

Contact Mark Brandau at mark.brandau@penton.com.
Follow him on Twitter: @Mark_from_NRN