Restaurant average checks rose modestly worldwide in the second quarter, but traffic declines in some markets raised concerns about the industry’s ability to attract repeat customers, according to The NPD Group.
The report found that only four of 11 markets included — Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain and the United States — reported traffic increases: Australia, Great Britain, and the emerging markets of Russia and China.
The remaining seven markets showed a mix of flat traffic and modest declines. In Germany, traffic dipped 2 percent in the wake of a food safety crisis and excitement around the 2014 World Cup. Restaurant traffic in Italy slid 3 percent during the quarter, while both traffic and average check in Spain fell by about 1 percent.
U.S. operators saw average check increase 2.4 percent, but traffic remained flat compared with the same quarter in 2013. Though perhaps for different reasons, sluggish domestic traffic numbers are fairly similar to those posted abroad.
According to Bob O’Brien, global SVP for NPD Foodservice, without better results from quick service, the entire industry will struggle.
“Globally … the industry will continue to eddy about, growing here and declining there, with no clear direction,” O’Brien said in a statement.
Researchers point to sagging confidence among low-income American consumers as a primary reason for the decline. Those consumers — core customers for quick-service restaurants — are not increasing discretionary income for restaurant purchases in the wake of the Great Recession.
Quick-service visits fell 1 percent for the 12-month period ending in June, while visits to fine-dining restaurants rose 3 percent, according to an NPD report released in early September.
An August report by Black Box Intelligence noted that same-store traffic across all U.S. restaurants fell 1 percent in July, and that over two years, traffic for that month declined an average of 3.7 percent.
Traffic rose in August, but only minimally, according to the NRN-MillerPulse index. During the month, U.S. industrywide same-store sales increased an average of 2.9 percent, while traffic rose just 0.1 percent.
“Sales trends have been consistent and strong across the industry over the past eight to nine weeks, which bodes well for the future,” said Larry Miller, founder of the monthly MillerPulse report. “The one thing gating our enthusiasm as we head into the home stretch of 2014 is traffic.”
