PRINCETON N.J. Restaurateurs looking for signs of an economic recovery will not see it in a recent survey that found consumer spending down markedly across all income groups in early March.
Even as government officials suggested that consumer spending might have stabilized, Gallup’s most recent Consumer Spending Index suggests otherwise. According to the survey, Americans’ self-reported spending in restaurants, stores, gas stations and online averaged $57 per day during the first 14 days of March, compared with $64 per day during January and February, and $83 per day during the same year-earlier period.
The Consumer Spending Index is based on telephone and cell phone interviews with more than 12,000 adults. The maximum margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1 percentage point.
According to Gallup, spending among upper-income consumers, or those earning $90,000 or more annually, was largely unaffected by the slowdown throughout much of 2008, rising 19 percent to $162 per day during the first nine months of the year. Since September 2008, however, spending by upper-income consumers has fallen 38 percent, to $101 per day during early March, Gallup found. During the same period, spending among middle- and lower-income consumers plunged 40 percent to $51 per day.
Because spending by upper-income consumers has a significant impact on retail sales, the early-March figures are disconcerting, Gallup officials said. Spending among the same group had averaged $110 per day in January and had risen to $121 per day in February.
Gallup officials noted that the early-March results might be seasonal, as spending among all Americans also fell in March 2008, although higher gas prices were having a greater impact on spending at that time. They further noted that good news could lie ahead. The recent rally in the stock market may help to improve spending among upper-income consumers influenced by the market’s “wealth effect,” and middle- and lower-income consumers in April will have more disposable income as the tax relief contained in President Obama’s stimulus package begins to take effect for some workers, they said.
Contact Robin Lee Allen at [email protected].
