ROSEMONT ILL. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
According to new data presented here Sept. 18 by the International Foodservice Manufacturers Association and Technomic Inc., operator mood is depressed. Only 9 percent of 663 restaurant operators surveyed in August indicated they held an optimistic outlook for the foodservice industry over the next 12 months. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
(To view charts featured in this week's print issue, click here.) —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
That figure is down dramatically from this time last year, when 48 percent of respondents said they held a positive outlook for the industry. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
“The realities on foodservice are particularly hard,” said Joseph M. Pawlak, a vice president at Technomic. “It’s caused a perfect storm…and there is not yet light at the end of the tunnel.” —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
Indeed, corporate officials from casual-dining operator Darden Restaurants Inc., family-dining company CBRL Group Inc. and quick-service player CKE Restaurants Inc.—all companies that had weathered this storm better than competitors—cited this month the continued pressures from both cost inflation and the tightened consumer economy. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
“While there has been some recent improvement in energy prices, which are an important factor in consumer spending levels, our…outlook for the balance of the year assumes that consumers will remain under pressure,” said Darden’s chair and chief executive, Clarence Otis. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
According to Technomic, total food and nonalcoholic-beverage sales, including receipts at restaurant, retail and on-site locations, are expected to reach $517.3 billion this year, a 1.2-percent nominal increase from last year. Adjusting for inflation pegged at 4.2 percent, the industry’s real growth this year is expected to be negative, down 3 percent from last year. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
This year is projected to be the industry’s first year of negative real growth since 2002, and prior to that, since 1991, according to the data supplied by Technomic. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
In 2009, industry sales of food and nonalcoholic beverages are projected to total $526.1 billion, a 1.7-percent nominal increase from the year earlier. Adjusted for expected inflation of 4.5 percent in 2009, real growth in food and nonalcoholic-beverage sales would fall 2.8 percent. Only once before, in 1980 and 1981, has the foodservice industry posted two consecutive years of negative real growth. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
Technomic’s most recent forecasts are subject to change and typically are revised to account for updated data. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
Total sales at restaurants and bars, a segment that makes up the lion’s share of the foodservice industry, are expected to rise 0.9 percent this year on a nominal basis and, when adjusted for inflation, to fall 3.3 percent. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
In 2009, those sales are expected to rise 1.7 percent but will fall 2.8 percent when adjusted for inflation. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
The full-service restaurant segment, which includes the struggling casual-dining sector, will provide the drag on the industry, Technomic’s data showed. This year full-service restaurant sales are expected to decline 1 percent on a nominal basis, and to fall 5.2 percent when adjusted for inflation. In 2009, full-service restaurant sales are projected to remain flat from the year earlier, and to fall 4.5 percent when adjusted for inflation. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
Quick-service locations are expected to continue to post industry-leading results. This year the quick-service sector’s sales growth is pegged at 2.5 percent, or a negative 1.7 percent on a real basis. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
In 2009, quick-service sales are projected to increase 3 percent, or to drop 1.5 percent when adjusted for the continued inflationary environment. —Even in a forecast that does not reflect the recent market turmoil and its potential economic repercussions, the foodservice industry is not expected to show any significant strengthening until the second half of 2009.
