NEW YORK In a year that saw the Nation’s Restaurant News Stock Index swing along with the general market, from daily gains as high as 9 percent to daily declines as steep as 5 percent, some restaurant company stocks found ways to win for the year, while others lost.
Unlike in 2008, when the majority of restaurant stocks reported annual declines, the majority of the 58 public restaurant firms posted stock price increases in 2009. Some stocks even more than doubled in value from historic lows, such as Caribou Coffee Co., Ruby Tuesday Inc. and O’Charley’s Inc. Other stocks recorded 100-percent-plus stock price gains in 2009, including Carrols Restaurant Group Inc., Steak n Shake Co. -- even adjusting the stock for its December 1-for-20 split -- Starbucks Corp., The Cheesecake Factory Inc., and DineEquity Inc.
The largest stock decliners included Western Sizzlin’ Corp., Burger King Holdings Inc. and Sonic Corp.
Looking to 2010, restaurant securities analysts say they favor restaurant stocks they expect to survive the dismal economy and then prosper as a recovery begins.
“Our investment focus remains on the sales leaders or market share gainers,” said Joe Buckley at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Based on the premise that the brands that are gaining share during this period of industry weakness are best positioned to continue to do so as the economy strengthens.”
Buckley’s buy-rated stocks include Cracker Barrel Restaurants Inc., Darden Restaurants Inc., McDonald’s Corp. and Panera Bread Co.
For Nicole Miller Regan, senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray & Co., picks for the year include Burger King, Panera and Starbucks.
2009 Top 10 Stock Winners*:
1. Caribou Coffee Co.
Closing price: $7.72
Annual percent change: 436.1%
2. Ruby Tuesday Inc.
Closing price: $7.20
Annual percent change: 350.0%
3. O’Charley’s Inc.
Closing price: $6.55
Annual percent change: 225.9%
4. Steak n Shake Co.
Closing price: $324.12
Annual percent change: 162.7 %
5. Carrols Restaurant Group Inc.
Closing price: $7.07
Annual percent change: 160.9%
6. Starbucks Corp.
Closing price: $23.06
Annual percent change: 134.3%
7. The Cheesecake Factory Inc.
Closing price: $21.59
Annual percent change: 108.6%
8. DineEquity Inc.
Closing price: $24.29
Annual percent change: 100.7%
9. Benihana Inc.
Closing price: $4.20
Annual percent change: 97.2%
10. Rubio’s Restaurants Inc.
Closing price: $7.22
Annual percent change: 90.0%
2009 Top 10 Stock Losers*:
1. Western Sizzlin Corp.
Closing price: $8.95
Annual percent change: -27.8%
2. Burger King Holdings Inc.
Closing price: $18.82
Annual percent change: -23.0%
3. Sonic Corp.
Closing price: $10.07
Annual percent change: -21.1%
4. Pizza Inn Inc.
Closing price: $1.60
Annual percent change: -19.8%
5. Good Times Restaurants Inc.
Closing price: $1.08
Annual percent change: -17.7%
6. Luby’s Inc.
Closing price: $3.68
Annual percent change: -15.0%
7. Jack in the Box Inc.
Closing price: $19.67
Annual percent change: -12.5%
8. Wendy’s/Arby’s Group Inc.
Closing price: $4.69
Annual percent change: -6.0%
9. CKE Restaurants Inc.
Closing price: $8.46
Annual percent change: -4.3%
10. McDonald’s Corp.
Closing price: $62.44
Annual percent change: -2.1%
The NRN Stock Index rose nearly 6 percent for the year, to close Thursday at 1,236.1.
*Top 10 winners and losers reflect stocks closing above $1.
Contact Sarah Lockyer at [email protected].
