Same-store sales picked up in September, and the restaurant industry rebounded with it, according to the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index.
Nearly half of surveyed operators said same-store sales improved in September, rising from just 30 percent who said the same in August, and indicating the best result since April.
Meanwhile, 40 percent of surveyed operators said traffic improved in September, rising from a multi-year low of 21 percent in August. Thirty-nine percent of operators said traffic fell.
The results could help assuage at least some concern that the restaurant industry is heading toward a broad-based recession. Still, same-store sales at chains remain weak, based on September results from both MillerPulse and Black Box Intelligence.
Still, operators are not optimistic that sales results will keep pace. According to the association, 28 percent of surveyed operators expect higher sales in six months, a decrease from 33 percent the previous month, while 17 percent expect sales to decline.
“Operators are decreasingly optimistic looking in the months ahead,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of research for the NRA.
The association’s Restaurant Performance Index increased to 100.8 in September, from 99.6 in August. The NRA considers any number above 100 to signal industry expansion.
The NRA bases its index on a monthly survey of operators. It compiles its index from two separate indices: a Current Situation Index that measures operators’ current situations, and an Expectations Index that measures their view of the future.
The Current Situation Index drove most of the gains in September, rising 2.5 percent, to 101, after the increase in same-store sales.
However, the Expectations Index was unchanged, at 100.6.
Operators’ views of their own sales grew more pessimistic, joining their generally downcast views of the economic outlook. Only 14 percent of surveyed operators expect conditions to improve in six months, while 29 percent expect conditions to worsen. The remainder said there would be no change.
Despite that pessimism, operators are building new units and expanding existing locations: 62 percent of surveyed operators made a capital expenditure in the past three months, according to the NRA.
Sixty-four percent expect to spend money on expansion, remodeling or new equipment in the next six months.
Contact Jonathan Maze at [email protected]
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