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Casual players look to steer past traffic slowdown

Casual players look to steer past traffic slowdown

Perhaps more than any other restaurant segment, casual dining is at a turning point, its leading brands forced to make major changes because of the troubled economy and the sector’s own track record of aggressive growth.

The largest casual players are dramatically curtailing new-unit development in order to establish a restaurant supply that can match consumers’ waning demand. The segment’s biggest chains are tweaking, or in some cases overhauling, their menus and pricing. Multiconcept outfits are disposing of entire chains or divesting locations that have underperformed.

Meanwhile, recent management shake-ups at the highest levels portend an altered casual-dining landscape for years to come.

This year “could be the biggest year in the casual-dining industry’s multiyear transition to maturity,” David Palmer, a restaurant securities analyst at UBS Equity Research in New York, says in a June report. “The best-in-class chains will move toward lower unit growth and more effective brand…management.”

Already, such chains as California Pizza Kitchen and Chili’s Grill & Bar have reduced projected unit openings, especially in domestic markets while looking overseas for more chain expansion. Others, like Outback Steakhouse, O’Charley’s and Ruby Tuesday, have worked to improve their image among customers by redesigning facilities, changing menus, and launching new advertising and promotions.

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY U.S. SYSTEMWIDE SALES*Actual results, estimates or projectionsSource: NRN research

 
LATEST-YEAR RANK PREC.-YEAR RANK CHAIN FISCAL YEAR-END U.S. SYSTEMWIDE FOODSERVICE SALES*(BY FISCAL YEAR, IN MILLIONS)
        LATEST PRECEDING PRIOR
1 1 Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 $4,505.4 $4,542.9 $4,192.2
2 2 Chili’s Grill & Bar June ’08 3,880.0 3,532.0 3,270.0
3 3 Olive Garden May ’08 3,048.0 2,772.0 2,610.8
4 4 Outback Steakhouse Dec. ’07 2,637.0 2,619.0 2,599.0
5 5 Red Lobster May ’08 2,567.0 2,527.0 2,502.2
6 6 T.G.I. Friday’s Dec. ’07 2,028.9 1,940.7 1,907.5
7 7 Ruby Tuesday May ’08 1,704.2 1,805.3 1,689.7
8 8 The Cheesecake Factory Dec. ’07 1,327.4 1,158.1 1,051.0
9 9 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & Spirits Dec. ’07 1,102.3 967.7 798.9
10 10 Texas Roadhouse Dec. ’07 1,020.0 930.1 807.3
11 12 Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 1,017.3 869.0 656.5
12 11 Hooters Dec. ’07 953.0 879.0 866.0
13 14 P.F. Chang’s China Bistro Dec. ’07 853.3 757.5 675.2
14 13 LongHorn Steakhouse Dec. ’07 831.2 774.0 666.1
15 17 Carrabba’s Italian Grill Dec. ’07 705.0 649.0 580.0
16 15 Romano’s Macaroni Grill June ’08 690.0 740.0 771.0
17 16 Bennigan’s Irish Amer. Grill & Tavern Dec. ’07 643.0 656.1 655.8
18 19 California Pizza Kitchen Dec. ’07 642.0 565.0 497.0
19 18 O’Charley’s Dec. ’07 630.0 642.0 620.0
20 20 Logan’s Roadhouse July ’07 557.8 501.0 450.0
21 21 Ruth’s Chris Steak House Dec. ’07 498.0 461.0 385.5
22 22 Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria Uno Sept. ’07 448.6 442.6 430.1
    TOTALS:   $32,289.4 $30,731.0 $28,681.8

Leading some of the largest chains through such maturation phases are some new faces in the corner office. Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & Bar, the largest casual-dining chain in terms of system sales and number of units, not only has a new corporate parent in DineEquity Inc.—the new name adopted by IHOP Corp. in May—but also has a new chain president.

Michael J. Archer was snatched away from T.G.I. Friday’s, another casual-dining chain in the Top 100, to assume the presidency at Applebee’s. Archer, who began his new role late last month, had been president and chief operating officer of Friday’s domestic division. As of late June, Friday’s hadn’t yet named a replacement for Archer. Applebee’s former president and chief executive, Dave Goebel, was ousted earlier this year along with other executives in senior management after IHOP purchased the struggling Applebee’s for $1.9 billion last November.

Archer’s assignment is to drive turnaround efforts by the Lenexa, Kan.-based chain, which DineEquity has said include a paring down of the Applebee’s menu, a renewed focus on bar operations—previously one of a few bright spots in terms of the chain’s sales—and an overhaul of marketing efforts to emphasize the brand’s points of differentiation.

Applebee’s, like many in its segment, has struggled for years with decreased guest traffic critics say resulted from inattention to its menu and branding.

Casual dining also has taken a large hit from the weakened consumer, who for almost a full year now has struggled with increased costs for gas, groceries and utilities and the dwindling value of investments, especially home equity. With casual dining’s price points ranging from as low as $10 to as high as $25, many consumers have opted to trade down to fast-casual or quick-service alternatives.

In that environment, Julia Stewart, DineEquity’s chairman and chief executive, has worked to tweak Applebee’s advertising, menu and promotions since the acquisition. Like many in the casual-dining sector that are attempting to lure customers with value-oriented deals, Applebee’s currently is promoting its Three Course Classics, a meal that includes an appetizer, entrée and dessert, typically priced at $9.99. Stewart, who was Applebee’s U.S. president before joining IHOP, expresses confidence in Applebee’s future.

“We’ve been down this road before and successfully led a total business transformation and re-energized a well-known brand,” she has said, referring to the turnaround she led at the IHOP chain, DineEquity’s other holding. “We plan to do it again with Applebee’s.”

For the chain’s latest quarter ended March 31, Applebee’s posted a 0.5-percent increase in same-store sales, which was its first uptick in that key area since 2006.

On the corporate side, Applebee’s also is being restructured into a more franchise-heavy company and most recently completed the first of many planned refranchising deals to reduce DineEquity’s ownership of the chain’s restaurants.

Another casual-dining giant looking toward new leadership is The Cheesecake Factory. At press time, the chain, long admired for having the highest average per-restaurant sales volume of any brand in the segment, was without a brand president following the departure of Russ Bendel, who left the company last month after just nine months as head of its restaurant division. Bendel exited to take the reins at Santa Barbara, Calif.-based The Habit Burger Grill, a chain poised for multistate growth with funding from the same investment firm that had backed the Mimi’s Cafe chain, which Bendel headed before he joined The Cheesecake Factory last summer.

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY GROWTH IN U.S. SYSTEMWIDE SALES (Year-to-year percentage change)*Actual results, estimates or projectionsSource: NRN research

 
LATEST-YEAR RANK PREC.-EAR RANK CHAIN FISCAL YEAR- END LATEST* VS. PRECEDING PRECEDING* VS. PRIOR
1 1 Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 17.07 32.37
2 10 The Cheesecake Factory Dec. ’07 14.62 10.19
3 2 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & Spirits Dec. ’07 13.91 21.13
4 6 California Pizza Kitchen Dec. ’07 13.63 13.68
5 7 P.F. Chang’s China Bistro Dec. ’07 12.65 12.19
6 9 Logan’s Roadhouse July ’07 11.34 11.33
7 14 Olive Garden May ’08 9.96 6.17
8 12 Chili’s Grill & Bar June ’08 9.85 8.01
9 5 Texas Roadhouse Dec. ’07 9.67 15.21
10 8 Carrabba’s Italian Grill Dec. ’07 8.63 11.9
11 18 Hooters Dec. ’07 8.42 1.5
12 3 Ruth’s Chris Steak House Dec. ’07 8.03 19.58
13 4 LongHorn Steakhouse Dec. ’07 7.39 16.2
14 17 T.G.I. Friday’s Dec. ’07 4.54 1.74
15 19 Red Lobster May ’08 1.58 0.99
16 16 Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria Uno Sept. ’07 1.36 2.91
17 20 Outback Steakhouse Dec. ’07 0.69 0.77
18 11 Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 -0.83 8.37
19 15 O’Charley’s Dec. ’07 -1.87 3.55
20 21 Bennigan’s Irish American Grill & Tavern Dec. ’07 -2.00 0.05
21 13 Ruby Tuesday May ’08 -5.60 6.84
22 22 Romano’s Macaroni Grill June ’08 -6.76 -4.02
    AVERAGE:   6.19 9.12

The Cheesecake Factory this month assigned day-to-day operations responsibility to David Gordon, its former West Coast regional operations vice president, promoting him to senior vice president of operations. The reassignment of Gordon—who is unrelated to the chain’s longtime brand development and marketing chief, Howard Gordon—was one of several executive changes the company undertook after Bendel’s exit.

Though not suffering as much as segment peers like Applebee’s, The Cheesecake Factory is in the midst of its own transition and recently had to deal with possible cannibalization from newer units and from branches of sister chain Grand Lux Cafe. The Cheesecake Factory chain’s annual average-unit volume has decreased steadily for about two years. Once considered resistant to changing consumer spending levels, the chain has started to feel the pressure of a lowered guest count.

While casual dining has been hit hard by weakened consumer spending, it also has had to contend with increases in almost all operating costs—labor, occupancy, commodities and distribution. Some of those expenses have been passed on to diners, though such menu price increases represent a fine line that many operators approach with the utmost caution.

The Cheesecake Factory currently is undertaking a detailed pricing study, its officials have noted, in order to understand how much pricing power it holds in terms of the chain’s ability to retain customer loyalty. Prices at the restaurants already were raised 1.5 percent this past winter.

“It continues to be a difficult environment to pass along cost pressures via menu price increases,” chief financial officer Michael Dixon told investors in a recent conference call. The Cheesecake Factory “will evaluate our opportunities for menu price increase again in our upcoming summer menu change,” he said.

For the company’s quarter ended April 1, blended same-store sales from The Cheesecake Factory and Grand Lux Cafe fell 1.8 percent from a year earlier.

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY NUMBER OF U.S. UNITS*Actual results, estimates or projectionsSource: NRN research

 
LATEST-YEAR RANK PREC.-YEAR RANK CHAIN FISCAL YEAR- END YEAR-END NUMBER OF UNITS*
        LATEST PRECEDING PRIOR
1 1 Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 1,864 1,841 1,732
2 2 Chili’s Grill & Bar June ’08 1,305 1,220 1,085
3 3 Ruby Tuesday May ’08 904 883 836
4 4 Outback Steakhouse Dec. ’07 795 786 775
5 5 Red Lobster May ’08 651 651 651
6 6 Olive Garden May ’08 647 608 576
7 7 T.G.I. Friday’s Dec. ’07 595 577 550
8 8 Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 493 429 370
9 9 Hooters Dec. ’07 392 385 376
10 10 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & Spirits Dec. ’07 366 329 281
11 11 LongHorn Steakhouse Dec. ’07 305 270 237
12 13 Texas Roadhouse Dec. ’07 285 251 221
13 12 Bennigan’s Irish Amer. Grill & Tavern Dec. ’07 255 265 270
14 14 O’Charley’s Dec. ’07 240 237 231
15 16 Carrabba’s Italian Grill Dec. ’07 238 229 200
16 18 California Pizza Kitchen Dec. ’07 209 192 175
17 15 Romano’s Macaroni Grill June ’08 201 230 232
17 17 Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria Uno Sept. ’07 201 202 203
19 19 Logan’s Roadhouse July ’07 182 166 147
20 20 P.F. Chang’s China Bistro Dec. ’07 173 153 131
21 21 The Cheesecake Factory Dec. ’07 140 123 103
22 22 Ruth’s Chris Steak House Dec. ’07 106 90 82
    TOTALS:   10,547 10,117 9,464

Among other chains affected by leadership changes are Ruth’s Chris Steak House, whose former chairman and chief executive Craig Miller was ousted by the board this spring, and Bennigan’s Irish American Grill & Tavern, which former CEO Clay Dover left abruptly at about the same time, citing a difference in opinion over the course charted for the chain’s parent company, Metromedia Restaurant Group. At both companies, successors had yet to be named this month.

At Orlando, Fla.-based Darden Restaurants Inc., management is overseeing an expanded portfolio that includes flagship brands Red Lobster and Olive Garden and the newly acquired LongHorn Steakhouse, also a Top 100 chain. Darden’s large corporate merger with the former Rare Hospitality International Inc. hasn’t affected the chains’ performances, and Red Lobster and Olive Garden remain perhaps the best-performing chains in casual dining, having posted segment-leading increases in same-store sales month after month as their leaders re-evaluate brand positioning constantly.

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY GROWTH IN NUMBER OF U.S. UNITS (Year-to-year percentage change)*Actual results, estimates or projectionsSource: NRN research

 
LATEST-YEAR RANK PREC.-EAR RANK CHAIN FISCAL YEAR- END LATEST* VS. PRECEDING PRECEDING* VS. PRIOR
1 10 Ruth’s Chris Steak House Dec. ’07 17.78 9.76
2 4 Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 14.92 15.95
3 1 The Cheesecake Factory Dec. ’07 13.82 19.42
4 7 Texas Roadhouse Dec. ’07 13.55 13.57
5 3 P.F. Chang’s China Bistro Dec. ’07 13.07 16.79
6 6 LongHorn Steakhouse Dec. ’07 12.96 13.92
7 2 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & Spirits Dec. ’07 11.25 17.08
8 8 Logan’s Roadhouse July ’07 9.64 12.93
9 11 California Pizza Kitchen Dec. ’07 8.85 9.71
10 9 Chili’s Grill & Bar June ’08 6.97 12.44
11 14 Olive Garden May ’08 6.41 5.56
12 5 Carrabba’s Italian Grill Dec. ’07 3.93 14.5
13 15 T.G.I. Friday’s Dec. ’07 3.12 4.91
14 13 Ruby Tuesday May ’08 2.38 5.62
15 17 Hooters Dec. ’07 1.82 2.39
16 16 O’Charley’s Dec. ’07 1.27 2.6
17 12 Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 1.25 6.29
18 18 Outback Steakhouse Dec. ’07 1.15 1.42
19 19 Red Lobster May ’08 0.00 0.00
20 20 Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria Uno Sept. ’07 -0.50 -0.49
21 22 Bennigan’s Irish American Grill & Tavern Dec. ’07 -3.77 -1.85
22 21 Romano’s Macaroni Grill June ’08 -12.61 -0.86
    AVERAGE:   5.78 8.26

Red Lobster, for instance, embarked on a rebranding campaign that started years ago and is set to finish with a return to new-unit openings next year after three years of stalled development. During that time Red Lobster worked to strengthen unit fundamentals, refresh the brand and build guest counts. Currently the chain is testing a new menu in certain stores, which chain officials have said will be advertised with more of a focus on food rather than price points. A new unit design also is in test within certain markets. The company would not provide further details.

Darden, however, is not immune to the current economic pressures. Its LongHorn chain and the growth brands Bahama Breeze and The Capital Grille still are struggling with negative same-store sales trends, and the company as a whole has been faced with the increased costs besetting all operators. However, as the largest casual-dining operator since its purchase of Rare, Darden holds more purchasing leverage than most rivals. The company’s size grew so drastically after the Rare merger that Darden overtook McDonald’s as the Top 100’s largest company, in terms of domestic foodservice revenue.

Other large competitors, like Brinker International Inc., parent of Chili’s, Romano’s Macaroni Grill and others, as well as OSI Restaurant Partners LLC, parent of Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill and others, also are using the soft economic environment to re-evaluate operations.

“There are times such as these we believe it is valuable to examine our business from a variety of perspectives and look for improvement opportunities,” Brinker chairman and chief executive Doug Brooks told investors during a recent conference call. “People tend to get more motivated when times are tough.”

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY ESTIMATED SALES PER UNIT*Estimated average, based on mathematical equation of annual systemwide sales growth and change in number of operating units.Source: NRN research

 
LATEST-YEAR RANK PREC.-YEAR RANK CHAIN FISCAL YEAR- END SALES PER UNIT* (BY FISCAL YEAR, IN THOUSANDS)
        LATEST PRECEDING PRIOR
1 1 The Cheesecake Factory Dec. ’07 $10,094.3 $10,248.7 $11,063.2
2 3 P.F. Chang’s China Bistro Dec. ’07 5,235.0 5,334.5 5,489.4
3 2 Ruth’s Chris Steak House Dec. ’07 5,081.6 5,360.5 4,849.1
4 4 Olive Garden May ’08 4,857.4 4,682.4 4,608.6
5 6 Red Lobster May ’08 3,943.2 3,881.7 3,852.5
6 5 Texas Roadhouse Dec. ’07 3,806.0 3,941.1 3,900.0
7 7 T.G.I. Friday’s Dec. ’07 3,462.3 3,444.0 3,529.1
8 8 Outback Steakhouse Dec. ’07 3,335.9 3,355.5 3,395.2
9 10 Logan’s Roadhouse July ’07 3,205.7 3,201.3 3,284.7
10 12 California Pizza Kitchen Dec. ’07 3,202.0 3,079.0 2,949.6
11 9 Romano’s Macaroni Grill June ’08 3,201.9 3,203.5 3,374.2
12 11 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & Spirits Dec. ’07 3,172.1 3,172.8 3,084.6
13 13 Chili’s Grill & Bar June ’08 3,073.3 3,064.6 3,162.5
14 15 Carrabba’s Italian Grill Dec. ’07 3,019.3 3,025.6 3,152.2
15 14 LongHorn Steakhouse Dec. ’07 2,891.1 3,053.3 2,980.3
16 16 O’Charley’s Dec. ’07 2,641.5 2,743.6 2,731.3
17 18 Bennigan’s Irish Amer. Grill & Tavern Dec. ’07 2,473.1 2,452.7 2,380.4
18 19 Hooters Dec. ’07 2,453.0 2,310.1 2,379.1
19 17 Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 2,432.1 2,542.9 2,506.5
20 20 Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria Uno Sept. ’07 2,226.3 2,185.7 2,103.2
21 21 Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 2,206.7 2,175.2 1,942.3
22 22 Ruby Tuesday May ’08 1907.3 2100.4 2105.5
    AVERAGE:   $3,541.9 $3,570.9 $3,582.9

CASUAL DINING CHAINS RANKED BY TOP 100 MARKET SHARE (Percentage of aggregate sales of dinnerhouse chains in Top 100)*Actual results, estimates or projectionsSource: NRN research

 
LATEST-YEAR RANK PREC.-YEAR RANK CHAIN FISCAL YEAR- END ANNUAL MARKET SHARE*
        LATEST PRECEDING PRIOR
1 1 Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 13.95 14.78 14.62
2 2 Chili’s Grill & Bar June ’08 12.02 11.49 11.40
3 3 Olive Garden May ’08 9.44 9.02 9.10
4 4 Outback Steakhouse Dec. ’07 8.17 8.52 9.06
5 5 Red Lobster May ’08 7.95 8.22 8.72
6 6 T.G.I. Friday’s Dec. ’07 6.28 6.32 6.65
7 7 Ruby Tuesday May ’08 5.28 5.87 5.89
8 8 The Cheesecake Factory Dec. ’07 4.11 3.77 3.66
9 9 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers & Spirits Dec. ’07 3.41 3.15 2.79
10 10 Texas Roadhouse Dec. ’07 3.16 3.03 2.81
11 12 Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar Dec. ’07 3.15 2.83 2.29
12 11 Hooters Dec. ’07 2.95 2.86 3.02
13 14 P.F. Chang’s China Bistro Dec. ’07 2.64 2.46 2.35
14 13 LongHorn Steakhouse Dec. ’07 2.57 2.52 2.32
15 17 Carrabba’s Italian Grill Dec. ’07 2.18 2.11 2.02
16 15 Romano’s Macaroni Grill June ’08 2.14 2.41 2.69
17 16 Bennigan’s Irish Amer. Grill & Tavern Dec. ’07 1.99 2.13 2.29
17 19 California Pizza Kitchen Dec. ’07 1.99 1.84 1.73
19 18 O’Charley’s Dec. ’07 1.95 2.09 2.16
20 20 Logan’s Roadhouse July ’07 1.73 1.63 1.57
21 21 Ruth’s Chris Steak House Dec. ’07 1.54 1.50 1.34
22 22 Uno Chicago Grill/Pizzeria Uno Sept. ’07 1.39 1.44 1.5
    TOTALS:   100.00 100.00 100.00

Echoing that sentiment, officials at Outback, which marks its 20th anniversary this year, have outlined a massive remodeling program and menu changes, including the steak chain’s first-ever limited-time offerings.

“The overall industry is very challenged in an exceptionally challenging year, and Outback is no exception,” Paul Avery, OSI’s chief operating officer, recently told Nation’s Restaurant News. “It is requiring us to think and work differently.

Top 100: Part one of a two-part report

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