Restaurant Brands International Inc., parent to the Burger King, Tim Hortons and other quick-service brands, expects to have 40,000 restaurants by 2028 and to post $60 billion in systemwide sales, the company said in releasing five-year guidance Thursday for its brands.
The Toronto-based company, which also owns the Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen and Firehouse Subs concepts, provided five-year guidance to investors and said it plans to achieve those targets with annual average growth over the next five years of 3% in same-store sales and 5% in numbers of restaurants..
"Our four iconic brands have strong restaurant fundamentals and clear runways for growth,” said Josh Kobza, RBI CEO, in a statement. “Our long-term investment horizon should result in compelling business performance and drive at least low double digit annual total shareholder returns over the next five years.”
Patrick Doyle, the company’s executive chairman, added: “The outlook we are sharing for growth is really the lowest average performance that we expect over the next five-years, with real upside potential from there.”
At the end of fiscal 2023 on Dec. 31, RBI had 31,070 restaurants, including 7,144 Burger Kings, 4,526 Tim Hortons, 3,394 Popeyes, 1,265 Firehouse Subs and 14,742 international restaurants under all the brands. Annual sales were about $40 billion.
Kobza said, looking toward 2028, that Tim Hortons will continue to focus growing the afternoon and evening daypart with wraps, bowls, savory pastries, snacking and new product innovation. Tim Hortons is also planning significant growth in cold beverages from its 25% market share for 2023, driven initially by cold brew, real fruit quenchers, specialty beverages and innovation around its Iced Capp, The company said. Tim Hortons U.S. business is expected to be the largest contributor of net restaurant growth in its home markets, with an aspiration of reaching 1,000 restaurants by 2028, RBI said.
In international development, the company said, each of its four brands is in a different stage of development. “The business still has a substantial opportunity for new-country expansion and increasing penetration of strong and established existing markets around the world,” the company said in a press release. “The company sees a path toward opening at least 7,000 new restaurants in international markets over the five-year outlook period."
For Burger King, which the company has committed $400 million to in its “Reclaim the Flame” two-year initiative, RBI said it expects to get 85% to 90% of the system to its modern image, driving incremental sales through remodels and marketing. The company also has the impending acquisition of 1,000-unit Carrols Corp., its largest U.S. franchisee.
For Popeyes, the company expects the brand will continue daypart and occasion expansion of its menu, in line with recent examples of the chicken sandwich and wings and focus on attracting the more profitable digital guests and increasing its digital sales mix. The brand also plans to accelerate its emphasis on improving restaurant operations through its Easy to Run kitchens. Popeyes expects to grow its restaurant base from from nearly 3,400 in 2023 to more than 4,200 restaurants by 2028.
Looking toward 2028, RBI said Firehouse Subs is expected to rapidly scale its digital channels to 100% of sales over the next few years, improve speed of service through equipment innovation, and accelerate net restaurant growth in attractive and under-penetrated markets across the U.S. and Canada with a path to ramp its pace of development to 300 net new annual units over the next few years, resulting in 800 new units by 2028.
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