GrubHub compares user trends with chef predictionsGrubHub compares user trends with chef predictions

Every year, the National Restaurant Association surveys nearly 3,000 American Culinary Federation chefs for its annual menu trends forecast.

GrubHub, the online food delivery service, compared the survey’s predictions from 2014 to its users’ trends during the year, and found that the chefs got many of their predictions right.

For example, hybrid desserts such as Cronuts and ice cream cakes were predicted to be the top dessert trend — and they were. GrubHub users ordered these desserts 148-percent more frequently in the first 11 months of 2014 than in the first 11 months of 2013.

Pickling was the most predicted trendy preparation method, and, indeed, orders of pickled items rose 106 percent.

New cuts of meat, bite-sized desserts, Greek yogurt, wheat-free noodles, hemp seeds, currywurst and brisket — all on the NRA’s trend list — saw appreciable increases in orders.

However, for the past several years, the chefs have told the NRA that locally sourced items would be the biggest trend of the year. If that’s true, restaurants that offer delivery either aren’t sourcing locally or aren’t taking credit for it. Mentions of “local” and “locally” on menu items ordered through GrubHub fell 10 percent year-over-year.

Annika Stenson, senior manager for research and communications at the National Restaurant Association, said predictions and purchases are, in their very nature, different things.

“Our What’s Hot survey explores the professional opinions of chefs as to what’s trending on restaurant menus. That isn’t necessarily the same as the prevalence of an item on menus or how many customers order a certain thing, so it’s a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison,” she wrote in an email. "That said, it looks like we’re in agreement about most things. As for other things, it might be a case of varying definition or interpretation. And that’s part of the fun of the culinary arts, it’s a creative field that produces countless trends of varying intensity and duration at any given time. And we do stand by both our pickles and artisan cheeses."

GrubHub found that the fastest-growing takeout menu item was the skillet chocolate chip cookie, which rose 323 percent year over year, followed by whiting and poutine, the Canadian french fry snack.

GrubHub spokeswoman Allie Mack said in an email that shareable items were becoming more popular not only at dine-in settings, but in takeout, too.

“Our order data shows that the shared plate trend has transcended dine-in establishments, with dishes like Brussels sprouts, cornbread and skillet cookies gaining in popularity among takeout dishes in 2014,” she wrote in an email.

“Further, if you look more closely at the top-trending takeout this year, you’ll see a clear subset of dishes that speak to a trend in shared bar foods (like jumbo pretzels and poutine). Shared plates are clearly becoming more popular options within the takeout segment — which speaks to an interesting shift in takeout dinner behavior: diners may be increasingly likely to order in groups,” she added.

This story has been revised to reflect the following update:

Update: Dec. 9, 2014  This story has been updated with commentary from the National Restaurant Association.

Contact Bret Thorn at [email protected].
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