2017 Next 202017 Next 20

The 2017 Next 20 restaurant brands — a broad range of concepts and a mix of both established and developing brands — exhibit strong growth trajectories in both number of units and in systemwide sales. The brands, whose annual U.S. sales are below the $166.9 million needed to qualify for the annual Top 100 and Second 100 lists, nonetheless paint a picture of a diverse group of growing concepts to keep an eye on.

Even in the highly competitive foodservice economy, this year’s Next 20 brands grew their aggregate sales with a year-over-year percentage increase of 16.8 percent, rising in the Latest Year to $1.3 billion from $1.1 billion in the Preceding Year.

The group’s aggregate unit growth was also demonstrably significant for these 20 concepts, showing a year-to-year percentage increase in number of locations of 8.2 percent. All told, the total footprint for all 20 concepts rose to 1,132 units in the Latest Year vs. 1,046 in the Preceding Year.

The Next 20 brands span segments from limited-service Mexican to pizza, skewing toward casual-dining because of the far higher estimated sales per unit offering in that category. Casual-dining brands made up fully half of the Next 20.

“There is no overriding theme,” said Alan Liddle, Nation’s Restaurant News data and event content director, who researched the data for the Next 20 as well as the Top 200. “This group has a lot of stories.”

The Next 20 range in sales from Fort Worth, Texas-based Fuzzy’s Taco Shop with $144.7 million in domestic systemwide sales in the latest year to Albuquerque, N.M.-based Pizza 9 with $13.9 million.

Behind Fuzzy’s Taco Shop in the Top Five were Charlotte, N.C.-based Firebirds Wood Fired Grill at $143.9 million in U.S. systemwide sales for the Latest Year, followed by Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Flanigan’s Seafood Bar & Grill at an estimated $113.9 million, Columbia, Md.-based Greene Turtle Sports Bar & Grille at $109.2 million and Carvel Ice Cream at an estimated $102.9 million.

Five brands booked estimated sales per unit growth that ran a furlong ahead of the other 15.

Hawthorne, Calif.-based Eureka! nosed to the lead of those five with ESPUs in the Latest Year increasing more than 16 percent. Eureka was followed by Auburn, Ala.-based Chicken Salad Chick at 10.9 percent, Golden, Colo.-based Bad Daddy’s Burger Bar at 10.4 percent; Fuzzy’s Taco Shop at 10.4 percent, and Whitefish, Mont.-based MacKenzie River Pizza at 8.8 percent.

The highest estimated sales per unit was posted by Redlands Grill, a secondary concept and conversion play by Nashville, Tenn.-based J. Alexander’s Holdings Inc., that reached $5.7 million per location.

The lowest estimated sales per unit was at Atlanta-based Carvel Ice Cream, with $294,000 per location. The average sales per unit for all the Next 20 brands was $2.2 million.

Private-equity investments are giving several of the Next 20 brands a boost in growing their unit numbers.

“Fuzzy’s Tacos is getting help from outside venture capital with NRD,” Liddle noted.

NRD Capital Management LLC, which is investing in largely franchised brands, took a 70 percent stake in Fuzzy’s earlier this year. Eagle Merchant Partners took a stake in Chicken Salad Chick in 2016.

One of the oldest brands in the Next 20 is Carvel Ice Cream, which was acquired by Roark Capital Group in 2001.

Carvel also covers the most geography with 342 units. Denver-based Punch Bowl Social had the fewest units in the Latest Year with eight.

The Next 20 brands are also headquartered from coast to coast, with a dozen states represented from among headquarters cities. California played host to the most, with four of the brands based in the Eureka State. That conveniently lends its name to one of the Next 20 casual-dining entries. 

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