Policy on the Menu: How Trump 2.0 could shift labor power dynamicsPolicy on the Menu: How Trump 2.0 could shift labor power dynamics

Changes after the transition from one presidential administration to the next — especially when leadership in the White House switches political parties — are expected to a degree, and less than two weeks into President Donald Trump’s second administration, there are already clear signs of how labor dynamics will shift in the post-Biden years.

Under President Joe Biden’s administration, the Department of Labor and the National Labor Relations Board in particular, were considered by experts to be very labor- and union-friendly. Moving forward, the NLRB is likely to become much more employer-friendly.

During his first week of office, Trump not only fired NLRB general counsel Jennifer Abruzzo — which was an expected political move — but also ousted board member Gwynne Wilcox before the end of her five-year term in an unprecedented move, leaving the board with three vacant spots and only two remaining members.

The National Labor Relations Board needs to have at least three sitting members in order to take on any labor cases. Wilcox is the first Black woman to serve on the board and stated that she will “pursue all legal avenues” to challenge the decision.

“The firing of the NLRB board member was not expected, and I think it's going to set the stage for a pretty big legal fight because the National Labor Relations Act does have some provisions that you can't just remove a board member,” Michael Elkins, partner and founder of MLE labor and employment law firm in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., said. “With that, you have an NLRB with no quorum that effectively can’t do anything.”

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Elkins said, however, that he is not holding his breath that these empty positions will be filled anytime soon, particularly since Trump ran on a platform of eliminating government waste with the establishment of DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency).

“I'm not sure that this administration is terribly worried about an administrative agency that's not functioning,” Elkins said. “There's a lot of conversation about these administrative agencies and whether they make sense, and what their authority is.”

The firing of Abruzzo was more in line with predictable political strategies, particularly since she was known to be one of the most aggressively pro-union attorneys to fill the role of NLRB general counsel. Abruzzo served in her role at a time when the NLRB saw a surge in union petitions, particularly from the hospitality and retail industries, led in great part by Starbucks Workers United.  

During her tenure, Abruzzo pushed for the restoration of the Joy Silk doctrine, which would allow unions to be recognized based on a majority of signatures on authorization cards rather than a formal vote. In August 2023, the board issued a decision in “Cemex Construction Materials PacificLLC” that set an updated framework for formal recognition of unions when the majority of employees requests unionization.

Related:U.S. House of Representatives votes to overturn the joint employer rule

In November 2024, the NLRB also significantly restricted the legality of “captive audience meetings,” in which employers require employees to attend meetings about labor-related issues unless met with specific requirements, overturning 40 years of precedent.

One of the most headline-grabbing decisions the NLRB made during the Biden administration was when the agency broadened the joint employer rule to make companies jointly liable with their franchisees for labor terms and conditions. This rule was eventually blocked by a U.S. federal judge days before it was supposed to go into effect.   

“I think that the pendulum swing under Biden was extremely employee-friendly,” Elkins said. “The general counsel for the NLRB [issued some] surprising decisions maybe in an attempt to make a name for herself — and if that was the reason, then she succeeded.”

While the makeup of the NLRB remains up in the air, Trump has nominated both his Department of Labor secretary and deputy secretary of labor. His pick for secretary of labor, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, is considered to be more politically moderate, while his nominee for deputy secretary of labor, Keith Sonderling, is more conservative. According to the Economic Policy Institute, Sonderling voted against the Equal Employment Opportunities Commission’s final rules on discrimination on the basis of gender identity, and against the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act, which acknowledged abortion as a medical condition for which employers must provide accommodations.

“Trump has courted the unions, and a big part of his base is rural Middle America,” Elkins said. “So, the question is: Is Trump really going to try to satisfy what those workers want, or is he going to impose a more pro-employer agenda? I think it'll be a more pro-employer agenda…but you might see some balance. I really do think there’s wiggle room with this pick [for labor secretary].”

While it is difficult to predict exactly how labor relations will change under the Trump administration, experts believe several Biden-era rule changes, like the restrictions on non-compete agreements, the independent contractor rule (which affects restaurant delivery drivers) and restrictive rules around severance agreements are likely to be overturned. An updated joint employer rule clarification could also be issued by the new NLRB administration.

“There's no doubt that the wage and hour division of the NLRB will be the most active,” Pacific Management Consulting Group founding principal, John Gordon, said. “The division’s field operations handbook is given to inspectors to inspect restaurants and retailers, which is where labor audits come from, including the controversial joint employer issue. Right now, joint employer is on hold.”

Currently, there is unpredictability in the federal government across multiple branches and agencies, and Gordon suggested that more dismissals in the labor department could be coming, including the NLRB administrative judges and other labor commissioners.  

As the dust settles on a flurry of dismissals and appointments, moving forward, employers can likely expect more labor wins for employers like Starbucks. Despite the changes, unions like Workers United – which represents Starbucks and other restaurant workers – anticipate a continuation of the struggle to get unions formalized and respected by employers.

“Even under the Biden administration, workers, especially in the South, had a very difficult time,” Elyanna Calle, president of Restaurant Workers United, said. “I was working at a restaurant, and we unionized, and there were some labor laws that were broken by the company. We had some unfair labor practice charges. It’s been two-and-a-half years now, and the election is still not certified.”

Calle said that she expects labor law “will be even weaker” under Trump.

“You just have to double down on the same tactics as before, which is grassroots organizing and uplifting the people in the communities,” Calle said. “These things are always going to be an uphill battle.”

Although there is a lot of uncertainty right now, shifts in labor policy between different presidential administrations is normal to a degree, especially when political affiliations change across branches of federal government. However, even normalized changes every four years can create too much unpredictability in labor law for both employers and employees.

“Unless it's embedded in federal law, the pendulum is just going to swing back and forth, on a series of things, especially related to overtime rules and the joint employer rules,” Gordon said. “Things are just going to go back and forth, and it’s not good for the restaurant industry.”

This is the first in a four-part series examining the impact of President Trump’s second term on the business sector, particularly the restaurant industry. New installments will be published weekly.

Contact Joanna at [email protected]