USDA Food Price Outlook for 2025 offers a mixed bag
Egg prices are rising as the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its report of the Food Price Outlook for 2025.
Sharmah Seakar, a senior procurement lead at Efficio, a supply-chain consultancy, said, “The United States is facing unprecedented increases in egg prices, driven by a combination of factors that include disease outbreaks, rising production costs, and regulatory changes.”
Retail egg prices increased by 8.4% in December and continue to experience volatile month-to-month changes, the USDA said in its 2025 Food Price Outlook, which was released last week.
The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza that began in 2022, with recent detections this month, “contributed to elevated egg prices by reducing the U.S. egg-layer flock,” the agency said.
MarginEdge, the restaurant management software company, noted that the national price of eggs was an average $6.31 a dozen on Jan. 13. Regional differences were marked. A dozen eggs in the Midwest was $5.81 on Jan. 13, compared to $6.19 in the South, $6.35 in the Northeast, and $7.31 in the West – a full dollar more a dozen than the national average.
Egg prices in December 2024 were 36.8% higher than in December 2023 but still below peak prices in January 2023. Egg prices are predicted to increase 20.3% in 2025.
Relying on the Producer Price Index, the agency said prices for farm-level eggs rose by 3.4% in December after spiking by 54.3% in November.
“Farm-level egg prices continued to experience large monthly changes as the ongoing HPAI outbreak continued to affect egg-layer flocks, with volatile effects on prices,” the outlook said. “In December 2024, prices for farm-level eggs were 134.5% higher than December 2023, when prices were lower following a lull in the outbreak through much of 2023. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 45.2% in 2025, with a prediction interval of negative 30.9% to positive 228.8%.
“Egg prices are the most volatile category tracked by USDA, ERS, leading to a wide prediction interval,” the USDA noted.
The all-items Consumer Price Index, a measure of economy-wide inflation, was unchanged from November 2024 to December 2024 and was up 2.9% from December 2023. The CPI for all food increased 0.2% from November 2024 to December 2024, and food prices were 2.5% higher than in December 2023.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home.
The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.1% from November 2024 to December 2024 and was 1.8% higher than December 2023; and the food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.3% in December 2024 and was 3.6% higher than December 2023.
A number of factors besides the avian flu are behind the increase in egg prices, Seakar said.
“Egg producers are experiencing higher costs due to increased energy prices and the rising cost of bird feed,” he said. “These expenses are reflected in consumer prices.”
Regulatory changes in some states have also contributed to increases, Seakar said. Some states, including Colorado, have implemented laws requiring the production and sale of cage-free eggs, which are generally more expensive to produce.
Seakar said businesses can adopt measures to ease the impact of egg shortages and price volatility, including diversifying suppliers, managing inventory, exploring alternatives like egg substitutes, and establishing long-term contracts.
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