Chicken and the eggChicken and the egg

Fern Glazer

Nation’s Restaurant News has an exclusive agreement to obtain the NPD Group data and research findings that appear on the Consumer Trends page.

In tough economic times, diners have long turned to the all-American burger — a complete meal in and of itself — as their order of choice. But with beef prices headed skyward, hamburgers and other beef products have taken a back burner to lower-cost proteins.

According to the latest data from Port Washington, N.Y.-based market research firm The NPD Group, beef didn’t even make it onto the list of growing foods for the year ended in June. Topping the list instead are chicken products, breakfast items and kid-friendly fare.

“[Operators] are promoting other types of proteins when beef prices are high,” said NPD analyst Bonnie Riggs. “It’s a shift in strategy when certain proteins or other items are escalating.”

According to the NPD data, the fastest-growing food for the year ended in June was chicken nuggets. Consumers ordered 102.8 million more servings of the processed poultry in the year, a 5-percent increase over the year prior. Pizza was the second-fastest-growing food. Consumers ordered 100.9 million more servings, an increase of 2 percent. Breakfast sandwiches were the third-fastest-growing food, with consumers ordering 75.9 million more servings — also an increase of 2 percent.

Other chicken products made the list as well, including chicken strips and breaded-chicken sandwiches. There were 53.8 million more servings of chicken strips in the year, an increase of 5 percent, and 44.4 million more servings of breaded-chicken sandwiches, an increase of 2 percent.

Other breakfast foods that made the list included breakfast burritos/wraps and pancakes. Consumers have been big on breakfast burritos/wraps, making 64.6 million more orders, an increase of 10 percent. And they’ve been flipping over flapjacks, ordering 58.7 million more servings, an increase of 7 percent.

Barbecue sandwiches also made the list of top growers. And though the product’s menu importance is small, the percentage of barbecue-sandwich orders increased the most of any item, growing 15 percent over a year ago.

The interest in these products is not just driving incremental servings, but also traffic, NPD found. For the year ended in June, breakfast-daypart traffic increased 1 percent, largely driven by growth in orders of breakfast items. Behind the purchases are older adults, whether they are employed or not. In addition, dinner traffic, which has long been negative, was up 1 percent. The return of families and parties with kids is giving this daypart a lift.

The absence of beef from the list is notable, but it’s not surprising. Historically, when beef prices rise, restaurant operators shift their focus to promoting and advertising lower-priced proteins, Riggs said.

While beefed-up beef prices are certainly significant, a combination of factors is driving consumers to order these top foods over other options, Riggs said.

Pizza is a prime example of an increase in promotions driving orders of a product, Riggs noted. The category was in the tank, but saw an 18-month traffic boost following heavy promoting from many top chains that began in early 2010.

Its new-item status helped give barbecue sandwiches of all kinds that double-digit percent increase in servings.

The rise of chicken products is strongly tied to the return of kids and families to restaurants, NPD found. Traffic with kids has been trending negative since 2008, but finally turned positive for the year ended in June.

With beef and other commodities prices forecasted to continue to rise, operators will need to find a way to entice consumers to purchase lower-cost, higher-margin products. Those still considering what to add or promote might want to take a closer look at some of the brands that have successfully driven sales of such products over the last year.

In early 2010, Domino’s, Pizza Hut and other major pizza chains kicked off a national pizza war that featured competing discounts and pizza-recipe changes and resulted in a huge traffic lift for those big brands. While their efforts proved that aggressive promotions could drive traffic in a down economy, instead of trying to out shout the big guys, Marco’s Pizza, a 253-unit chain based in Toledo, Ohio, laid low.

“When big players advertise, they tend to drive category activity,” said Peter Wise, vice president of marketing for Marco’s. “If you’re in the consideration set, when they advertise, you get the benefit.”

According to Wise, in 2010 the privately held company’s same-store sales exceeded the performance of the top pizza chains. In addition to residual benefits, Wise said Marco’s saw significant impact from increasing its local and regional marketing efforts.

While beef isn’t a strong category on Subway’s menus, the Milford, Conn.-based chain is finding new ways to promote alternative proteins. For example, in March Subway launched the $5 Featured Footlong, a monthly program highlighting one of the chain’s existing $5 Footlongs.

“The $5 Footlong is an enormous brand for us. What we wanted to do was drive attention, … redouble our efforts to support the breadth of our sandwich line,” said Tony Pace, senior vice president and marketing officer of the Subway Franchisee Advertising Fund Trust. “Featured products always pop.”

Last year, burger-centric chains Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s began focusing more on poultry.

“We do see ourselves as a premium-beef burger place, [but] it made sense, for a lot of reasons, to develop poultry products,” said Brad Haley, chief marketing officer for CKE Restaurants Inc., parent company of Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s.

Among the major product rollouts at the two chains in the last year was a line of hand-breaded chicken sandwiches and a charbroiled turkey burger. While the ideas for these poultry products had long been in the pipeline, Haley said rising commodities prices “moved them up on the list.”

Similarly, Quiznos always has wanted to offer a barbecued-pork sandwich, but the timing was never quite right — until this summer.

“It’s always been there. We looked at it every year,” said Zach Calkins, senior vice president of culinary innovation at Quiznos. “Steak has always done well with us, then prices went up.”

In June the chain launched a limited-time-offer Southern BBQ Pulled Pork sandwich. The new product has been so well received that the chain has since added it to the permanent menu.

“A lot of chefs are being innovative with barbecue,” Calkins said. “A lot of consumers do really like barbecue, and seeing more creative outlets has really moved the needle.”